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Economic Impact of Texas A&M Moving to SEC

Last time I checked, the SEC doesn’t require schools to physically move when they join the conference. There are no plans for Texas A&M to relocate to Mississippi, Alabama or Georgia in order to join the SEC. You won’t be driving down the highway and see half a building on a semi trailer. Nope, Texas A&M will be staying in College Station.

Why then the cries of poverty in Texas should Texas A&M leave the Big 12? According to a report by the Perryman Group, even if the Big 12 stays intact, the economic impact of Texas A&M joining the SEC is a reduction of $217.2 million in gross product and 3,050 jobs on the Texas economy. Huh?

Unfortunately, Mr. Perryman dosen’t give us any indication as to how he arrived at his numbers. That makes it difficult for me to comment other than to say that I don’t see it.

Texas A&M will still be located in College Station, Texas. It will still play seven to eight home games in College Station. If anything, I think you will see an increase in economic impact in College Station as SEC fans, who are known to travel, descend upon the town. There are no SEC schools within reasonable same-day driving distance (which can’t be said for Baylor, Texas and maybe even Texas Tech), so that means more fans staying in local hotels, eating in local restaurants, and purchasing from local stores.

Most would agree a move to the SEC will benefit Texas A&M. In addition to what I’ve already mentioned, it will see a rise in conference distributions. In 2010, the Big 12 distributed $139 million between member institutions. As most of you are aware, the Big 12 does not distribute television money equally. According to Texas A&M financial documents, their portion of the conference distribution was $9.3 million, not including bowl game reimbursements. Meanwhile, over in the SEC $209 million was distributed equally between member institutions in 2010 for a total of $17.42 million each, not including bowl reimbursements.

That means Texas A&M would have nearly doubled its conference receipts if it had been in the SEC last year. That is, of course, not taking into account the SEC revenue pie being split into smaller slices with the addition of Texas A&M and presumably at least one other school. However, the SEC wouldn’t be adding members if it weren’t confident it was getting enough from a new television contract to keep conference distributions at or above current levels.

Travel expenses will obviously increase for the four conference games that the Aggies would play away from College Station. However, the number will be more than covered by the increase in conference distribution. I don’t have a number for Texas A&M, but in looking at Ohio State’s budget having an extra away game in 2011 only increased the football travel budget by $140,000.  Obviously, travel would increase across all sports, but I’m positive the nearly double conference distribution will take care of that.

What is the impact on the Big 12? The biggest concern would be the conference folding. However, I believe as long as Texas and Oklahoma stay put, the conference will remain. At least for now.

As I said in my post earlier this week, ESPN plays a key role as this unfolds. It has the power to walk away from its contract with the Big 12 if membership falls below ten. However, because of the legal issues I explained are in the background, I fully expect ESPN to honor the contract regardless. I also expect the Big 12 to attempt to add either one or three teams. If I had to guess, I’d say Houston, BYU and Louisville. This would allow the Big 12 to continue as a conference and be just as strong, or even stronger, than it is today. Again though, Texas and Oklahoma staying put are critical.

I’ve also seen some analysis suggesting a negative impact on the State of Texas. I am not an economist and do not claim to have expertise in measuring economic impact. Unfortunately, the reports and news stories aren’t explaining the numbers they’re throwing around. Here’s what I have been able to find.

Texas A&M would still play 7-8 home games, so the financial losses are not attributable to what goes on in College Station. University of Texas doesn’t need Texas A&M to come to Austin to improve its economic outlook. However, Waco (home of Baylor) does need Texas A&M to visit, and I’ve heard some argue Lubbock (Texas Tech) does as well. A&M fans travel to those away games and pump money into the local economy. It’s far less likely BYU or Louisville fans would travel to away games in Waco.

The question is why is Texas A&M responsible for the local economy in Waco? Any economy dependent on a football game that happens once every two years has bigger problems than A&M moving to the SEC. How much does that game really mean to Baylor?

I reviewed studies and contacted nearly a dozen Chambers of Commerce in college towns in the SEC, ACC and Big Ten. Based on that research, I found the direct economic impact of the average college football game ranged from $2.5-3.8 million. For example, the Athens Chamber of Commerce approximates it at $2.95 million per game for the 2011 season. The Florida State – Samford game in 2010 was reported to have a $2.5 million economic impact in Tallahassee. A study commissioned by Michigan’s University Research Corridor in 2007 shows a direct economic impact of $3.8 million per game for in-state attendees when Michigan (which boasts the largest stadium and is thus capable of having the most economic impact) and Michigan State data is combined.

Although $2.5-3.8 million is significant money for Waco, by no means would it all be lost without the Texas A&M game. Another opponent would come to town, and although likely not in the same droves as Aggie fans, the game would still have some economic impact on the city.

Another study I consulted was by Dr. Craig A. Depken, II at UNC-Charlotte on the economic impact of sporting events. Dr. Depken states that optimistic evidence estimates say college football games increase taxable activity by approximately $400,000. In 2005, aggregate taxable activity in Waco was $1.64 billion. That would make the taxable activity attributable to a football game, like Baylor-Texas A&M, approximately 0.024% of the Waco economy. Not exactly hysteria-inducing numbers.

Although Waco might incur some losses, the State of Texas would actually see a positive economic impact. Currently when schools from within the state play one another and residents of the State travel to the game there is no new economic activity. Residents are simply spending their money in a different Texas town. However, when an out-of-state school visits and brings in its team, coaches, band, cheerleaders and fans new money is being pumped into the state economy.

I spoke with potential SEC West opponents and asked how often their ticket allotment for away games go unused. Ole Miss, who wouldn’t be the first team I named for traveling well in the SEC, tells me it sells an average of 3,000 tickets to away games, with its entire allotment of 7,000 being sold each time it visits LSU or Alabama. Compare that to the sales Texas A&M had for conference opponents in 2009 and 2010 from the 3,850 allotment each school in the Big 12 reserves for visiting teams:

2010

  Allotment Purchases
Missouri

3850

1322

Texas Tech

3850

2235

Oklahoma

3850

3735

Nebraska

3850

3817

2009

  Allotment Purchases
Oklahoma St

3850

1435

Iowa St

3850

566

Baylor

3850

981

Texas

3850

3380

Big 12 schools reserve 3,850 tickets for visiting conference members and another 150 for the conference. In the SEC, schools reserve 7,000 tickets for visiting fans. Why? Because SEC fans travel. If every school Texas A&M faced in the SEC brought only Ole Miss’s average of 3,000 tickets per game to College Station, that would be 12,000 fans per year descending on College Station, compared to the 11,109 A&M saw in 2010 and just 6,362 in 2009. I have every reason to believe teams like LSU and Arkansas would buy out the full 7,000 allotment.

I’m told that the majority of hotels in College Station require a two-night stay. A conservative estimate of the average room in town is $200/night. That’s $600,000 in hotel revenue alone if you assume each of the 3,000 visiting attendees are staying two to a room. Add in gas, food and beverages and other purchases and each game featuring an out-of-state team in College Station could bring millions of dollars to the City and the State of Texas.

Based on my initial findings, I cannot even begin to find the origins of Mr. Perryman’s $217.2 million in losses. I do not bill myself as an economist, and this post is by no means a complete analysis. It’s a starting point. It’s cold hard numbers from real sources.

I will either update this post or add additional posts as more of the data I requested becomes available.

_________________

Here on BusinessofCollegeSports.com I never charge for content. If you like the site, I only ask that you return again and that you support my friends when you can. One of those friends is Courtyard by Marriott. While researching for this piece, I was staying on the top floor of the fabulous Courtyard by Marriott Manhattan/SoHo. When I arrived at the hotel at 2 a.m. after a 4-hour flight delay, I couldn’t wait to fall into bed. However, when I walked into our room I had to delay sleep long enough to admire the amazing view of Manhattan from my window. Once I was finally in bed, I got a great night’s sleep. The bed was comfortable and the room quiet, something very few Manhattan hotels can claim. The rooms were large and fresh, and the front desk staff was amazingly friendly and helpful. The lobby of the hotel features Courtyard by Marriott’s new interactive GoBoard, a large touchscreen that allows you to sneak a peak at local attractions, find the best restaurants nearby for dinner, check the weather and even your flight. The Courtyard by Marriott Manhattan/SoHo was the perfect place for my business trip to Manhattan, and I can’t wait to visit again!

118 thoughts on “Economic Impact of Texas A&M Moving to SEC”

  1. In short: Sorry Baylor, you never should have been allowed in the Big XII, and you never should have employed such a shoddy economic study. If your fans will embrace the WAC or Conference USA, you’ll learn to love it, and have more legitimate success than the Perryman Group “study.”

  2. miss dosh,

    thanks for the post

    tried to email you about the clay travis post, no response, glad you saw it tho

    as email does not seem to be getting through, 2 questions

    #1 Your thoughts on IMG in all this realignment discussion?

    #2 Your thoughts on CBS vs ESPN
    CBS contract is up sooner, so if realignment happens in the SEC, isn’t that the logical place to bump up value for the added teams in the SEC first?

  3. Hmmm, economics degree from rice (perryman) vs nice lady in dress who writes. I think I’ll go with the person who actually has credentials.

    1. Perryman’s credentials include being sued by his credit card company for more than $200,000.

      1. It’s actuall >$248,000 that this “economist” has been unable or unwilling to pay. Quite the expert!

    2. Interesting that you’d call her dress “credentials.” But whatever you label her dress, she appears correct on the issue

    3. To clarify, the guy in the pants, was sued for $248,084.91 interest by HSBC Bank Nevada. Sounds like he lost those pants! Maybe Perryman should borrow a dress!

    4. Nice lady in dress with a J.D.

      Everyone in Texas knows Perryman (a Baylor grad) is a econ for hire. Just tell him what you want the numbers to say and he’ll do it.

      1. That sounds right to me. Consultants frequently have to make implausible assumptions in order to get results that will please their clients.

    5. And who’s alma mater is about to be out of a BCS conference if the Big XII folds. Perryman’s interest is self-serving, and the fantasy-land “economic” report his company filed has NO supporting data. Do some of your own homework so you don’t look ignorant.

  4. Mystified go look at Perryman’s history with over $240,000 in debt in credit cards and then come back and tell us you would take his advice on economics. Include the fact that he is a mouthpiece from Baylor, and that he has nothing to back up his numbers. Nice lady in a dress doesn’t claim to be an economist, but backs up all statement’s with studies and numbers.

  5. A very good analysis. Let me add something else. A&M is located less then a 100 miles from Waco. and is less then 150 from Dallas and about 180 from Houston. I don’t have the figures but I am sure that a good percentage of these fans that go to the game in Waco, drive in watch the game and go home. Some may eat a few may stay over night but the close proximity of A&M means that a large percentage of fans never spend a dime in Waco proper. Add the tailgaters who bring in their tailgating stuff and that number of actually patrons of Waco area restaurants would again decrease. Bottom line the distance from a venue is going to have a huge impact on the economics of a game on a the local economy. If you can simply drive in attend and go home the only real economic impact is on the tickets and concessions sold.

    One other point, Wasn’t Perryman recently filed against for non payment of a credit card debt of some $248,000? Doesn’t he have a conflict of interest in this as well? Seems like this whole ‘economic’ report is extremely tilted and shady.

    1. You forgot to mention that A&M buys most of the tickets for that game in Waco. There IS a potential loss of revenue as most other schools won’t buy 15,000 tickets to see a game in that sorry excuse for a stadium Baylor plays in.

    2. Closer to 200 miles to Dallas and just under 100 to Houston, but point made. Or are you saying that Houston is 180 to Waco?

  6. You do yourself no favors by questioning the credibility of a very qualified economist, whose opinion is valued by many governmental entities and other organizations who employ him. His creditentials speak for themself, as do yours. You would do better to actually be fair in your analysis and cite the limiting factors described in Perryman’s report, rather than ignoring them.

    Baylor drew more than 40,000 fans for each of its first two homes games last season – opponents were Sam Houston and Buffalo. The capacity of the stadium is about 50,000. To act like no Baylor fans attend games is naive at best, and disingenuous at worst. It’s almost as if a Texas A&M graduate that posts on message boards was feeding you your information. I can’t imagine that to be the case. I’m sure you contacted Baylor to substantiate your claims.

    You lose credibility by not thoroughly exploring the real possibility of the Big 12 collapse, as Dr. Perryman’s report did. You clearly do not care about Baylor University or the Waco economy, but the State of Texas does as do many of its citizens. If the Big 12 collapses as partially a result of Texas A&M leaving for the SEC, it is simply fact that it will cost the State millions of dollars in economic loss.

    Finally, a glaring whole in your argument, which is partially founded on the increased revenue A&M will receive, is that you did not state that using revenue numbers for the Big 12 last year is complete and utter nonsense. Since those numbers were distributed, the Big 12 has lost 2 members and acquired a tremendous increase in its contract with Fox Sports. If you have followed the Big 12 story at all, you should already know A&M stands to make over $20 million in revenues from conference distributions, surpassing the $17 million you cite from the SEC last year. Yet, you make no mention of that.

    It sure seems like you were urged by Texas A&M graduates to write this “report,” and I certainly hope you amend your “report” to more accurately reflect the obvious mistakes you made.

    1. I would cite “limiting factors in Perryman’s report if he told us the basis for any of his numbers. Also, I never said Baylor doesn’t attend its own hone games. I didn’t explore Big 12 collapse, because as I said I don’t believe it happens as long as Texas and Oklahoma stay put. I used last year’s conference distribution to compare to last year’s SEC distribution – apples to apples. Yes, A&M will make more under new tv contract in Big 12. Still less than SEC schools will make.

      1. Apples to apples they are not.

        The Big XII increase is a known amount, any SEC increase will be less than 10% (projected to be 5% based on reports I’ve seen).

        By any measure, the SEC teams are unlikely to receive distributions in excess of the $20M that A&M was guaranteed in the Big XII. You must also factor in A&M’s buyout.

        It will take A&M several years just to break even.

    2. Your reading comprehension is questionable. Your points were either addressed or not even implied. Using past revenue would be the only hard data one could use, anything else is conjecture. Big 12 TV revenues should increase, but SEC TV revenues should as well.

      If Perryman gave any indication of where his numbers came from it would help his credibility immensely. He’s made himself an internet laughing stock.

    3. It sure seems that you never read the Perryman report at all. Her numbers may not be close, but they are far more reasonable than 220 Million dollars in damages to the Texas Economy. Baylor is grabbing at straws and the Perryman report is an obvious of this. It also took him 72 hours to create. Any respected economic damages report would take weeks of discovery, fact checking, and research. If the report was used in court, it would be immediately thrown out as baseless.

      Now, one calculation that is being overlooked, is the distributions from a BCS bowl. If Baylor were to lose its automatic qualification to a BCS bowl than the damages may increase tremendously!

    4. You talk about the 40000 fans that attended the first two Baylor games last fall but forget to mention that the school donated several thousand to waco isd, the united way and several other school districts around waco. From what i understand was close to 20000 non paying ticket holders to those games alone, i know for a fact that the school district i work at got 5000 ticket vouchers. What is the economic impact when one third to one half of the people at the games didn’t even pay admission?

      But lets bump our chests and brag about have 40k for Sam Houston and act like Baylor football drives the economy in Waco. Its simple it doesn’t and Perrymans report is a joke to anyone who understands economics.

    5. She’s not an A&M lean, but Kristi is a long-time SEC slanted blogger.

      So yes, you are getting some slant in this piece, its just SEC slant not A&M slant.

  7. I see the Aggies are out to “swift boat” Perryman, trying to dig up information on personal matters for which they likely know nothing about. Don’t you Aggies realize by 3 of you posting the same exact thing within minutes of each other does nothing but further destroy the credibility of this piece.

    1. Steve,
      Let Mr. Perryman publish his full ‘findings’ and not just this large number with no supporting document. Her is respected as a man in need that was willing to make this document in 1 day and put his name on it. That is all the respect he gets. He’s a Baylor grad as is 95% of his staff. We don’t need to swift boat this guy. He is a fraud. And a bad one, but certain news groups etc WILL use his ‘report’ cause it makes their point and most won’t bother checking the facts.
      BUT Kristi will!

    2. Then let Perryman show us his numbers, and sources, and assumptions.

      Full disclosure: I went to A&M. I got a degree in science (meteorology). I’m way too experienced to fall for someone just showing me their conclusions. Not showing your work was unacceptible in the 6th grade, it’s even more unacceptible when you’re grown up.

  8. Yeah I’m gonna say i agree with a degreed economics expert over a blog. Nice try, though. Enjoy being the SEC’s whipping boy. It’ll make Baylor in the early 2000′s in the Big 12 look like a conference champion.

    1. Lover –

      Nothing could ever. EVER. EVER. Under ANY circumstances, make Baylor of the early 2000′s look like a conference champion.

  9. fun fact, that so called “day game” to Tech, College Station is 100 miles closer to Baton Rouge than it is to Lubbock, and Fayettville is only 60 miles further than CS to Lubbock. Those outside of Texas don’t understand how massive this state is. Trust me when I say that when people travel for Tech/A&M they are staying the night somewhere.

    Interesting that she’s so quick to dismiss Perryman group’s research, especially considering Perryman himself was nominated for a Nobel Prize in economics in 2004.

    I’m going with Mystified on this one…I’ll trust the seasoned economist with a long list of awards and recognition from national and international committees…

    1. I went to Lubbuttock once. That was enough.

      Let Mr. Perryman publish his facts about this RIDICULOUS amount of money that the state is losing. What, he won’t do it. Surprise!

    2. Yes, and Obama won a Nobel Prize a couple of years ago for…I’m still not sure. So I’m not sure what the nomination is worth. Please the right people I guess.

    3. Recognition like this?

      According to the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Perryman may be skilled at self-promotion, but little else. Here’s what
      others said about him: “’He’s the most bought economist in Texas,’ says Austin City Council Member Brigid Shea,
      with whom he butted heads when he testified against proposed environmental regulations there. ‘He will produce any conclusion you want,’ [and] ‘He’s got all these computer models he can never explain,’ says Austin lawyer Bill
      Bunch, …. ‘It’s just this black box. Hocus-pocus,’ [and] ‘Go to an American Economics Association meeting and
      ask who Ray Perryman is. Nobody will have ever heard of him,’ says Thomas Saving, chairman of the economics
      department at Texas A&M. The president of the AEA, the major trade group for academic economics, has never
      heard of Dr. Perryman, a spokeswoman says. Laura Johannes, Economist Ray Perryman Is Hailed As a Genius — for
      Self Promotion, Wall Street Journal, May 10, 1995.

    4. “Perryman himself was nominated for a Nobel Prize in economics in 2004″

      Some posters are showing their ignorance here. Being nominated for a nobel prize is nothing. See here: http://blogs.msdn.com/b/oldnewthing/archive/2007/05/24/2826650.aspx

      Perryman has never done anything substantive in his career. He’s never won any major economics awards and he’s an absolute joke in the industry. He will do anything for quick money.

      If you can show me the assumptions in his report as Kristi did above then we can discuss the numbers. Don’t hold your breath, because they won’t ever be produced.

    5. Obama won a Nobel Prize. Didn’t do much for his credibility, either. There is no longer any credibility earned by winning a Nobel Prize, never mind simply being nominated. Try again.

  10. Folks,

    Can the pro TAMU crowd and anti TAMU crowd go back to your respective Rivals board and fight this out there? Please keep this civil here, as we may not care about your personal issues.

    Thanks

    1. I’m pretty sure Kristi would prefer the hits to her site actually. Don’t chase away her business. This article may expose us to her for the first time, but maybe some of us will stay on permanently.

  11. It’s simple, Bears. All Perryman has to do to shut up his critics is to release his methodology–like *any* good research economist does. Otherwise, you’re just resting on his credentials, and those, unfortunately for you, are actually impeachable. Perryman is widely regarded as “for sale”, and has been for the past 15 or so years.

  12. While, Kristi twice makes sure to note that she is not an economist, she has done a great (lalready) of de-bunking Perryman. And yet, some in the TX legislature, and certain aggrieved B12 Presidents, want to wave the Perryman study as gospel, with no basis for the findings. $200+million dollar negative impact? How could that possibly be?

    Great job Kristi.

    Burden80

  13. Steve, the problem with the report is the methodology used. It uses a base input-output method to come to its determinations. The results of which is the report looks only at the negation of all A&M home games and all A&M away games within the state of Texas which would no longer be played, at all. It then further projects by the diminished influence of a neutered conference on the ability to pull conference championship games, NCAA tourney games, and regional/national playoff games into the state. In short his assessment would require A&M to literally move from Texas, which Ms. Dodds alludes to quite well.

    Ms. Dosh does not allow for the fact of all conference games are on a home-home or neutral basis, so gains and losses should even out over two year cycles. There is also the negation of “local” fans of the visiting team consuming a good percentage of tickets, so also not really increasing the net revenues for an area.

  14. Steve,

    Just because you say something does not make it true. Point, your accusation that if A&M leaves the Big 12 the State of Texas will lose millions of dollars. How exactly is that so? The Big 12 will either stay in place or dispand, but either way all schools will continue to play sports and have fans and travel. You yourself pointed out that Baylor had a large number of people attend their first two non conference games last season. I assume that would still stay the same. You are as bad as Perryman. You levy accusations of not having facts with absolutely no facts to back it up…

    Here are a couple of facts. Texas A&M has sold more season tickets this year than in any other year of the schools history. That economic “stimulas” will remain whether A&M stays or leaves to the SEC. If A&M does leave to the SEC, traditionally the SEC fans have traveled better than the Big 12 fans. More fans equals more money.

    The whole Perryman report just pulls numbers out of the air and has nothing to back them up, much like your arguments. Add to the fact that Perryman offices in Waco and has many ties to Baylor. PLEASE!!!

    One final thought, you attempt to validate Perrymans study by noting he is respected and valued by government agencies for his work… Ding, Ding, Ding!!! When was the last time the government ever forecasted something correct? Maybe the problem was they hired Perryman…

  15. Steve truth is truth. Perryman has a notorious reputation for being an economist for hire! and in this case he definitely has a jilted opinion and a conflict of interest and as noted by Kristi there is just not real data to back up his claims.

    As far as the report on the demise of the Big XII, that whole subject is moot.

    !. Beebe and Dodds have both publicly stated the A&M leaving the Big XII would not lead to it’s demise. Simply put A&M is not the foundational piece.

    2. There are a bevy of teams that would be able to fill A&Ms spot including UH. The truth is Baylor does not want UH coming into the Big XII because Baylor would now have another in state team that they have to recruit against.

    3. As far as your legal claims of TI. I refer you to this article:

    http://bravesandbirds.blogspot.com/2011/08/espn-sec-and-false-specter-of-lawsuits.html

    It is from an practicing commercial litigation attorney.

    Bottom line the aspect of the BIg XII going DODO because of the Ags heading to the SEC is just a none issue.

    If I was a Baylor guy it is UT that I would be upset at. It was UT that started all the instability last year with their move to the PAC 10 a move that was thwarted entirely by the Aggies not playing along. You did notice that there was going to be no room for Baylor in the move didn’t you?

    Now UT has continued the instability by constantly pushing the envelope with their partnership with ESPN. UT was not forthcoming with the details of the network when they floated it by the Conference members and they have been pushing for more and more since that day, Even now stating that HS Highlights are now to be shown on The LHN< (We'll see how the NCAA handles that) even going to the extent of redefining "high school content". The 8 other UT sheep follow obligingly only A&M took a stand.

    4. In a conversation with a well placed Notre Dame official when asked about the possibility of ND and UT joining together in conference the jest of the conversation was that this could only happen if the Big East failed to service the other non football sports of ND and then it would be more of Nationally based conference hooking up some of the Big XII teams, OSU, OU and some of the higher academic Univesities, Baylor was not included in that list of possible teams for this super Nationwide, "academic" conferences.

    Bottom line UT is using Baylor like a cheap hooker. Sorry but that's the truth.

  16. Look, I realize why BU fans are upset. However, you have to admit not one of you would buy a home or car based on the data support that Perryman provided. The fact that he didn’t provide a single piece of support, discredits him greatly. I would encourage any of you that knows the man, to release his data and methodologies! Without that, it simply cannot be any basis for any decision, large or small.

  17. I don’t believe the Perryman numbers at all. I think you raise a lot of good points in this article but missed on a couple of key items (plus a couple extra thoughts).

    1) The Big 12 will start a new TV deal next year which means A&M should get about $15M in TV money. That should bring total conference distribution to mid $17M range (NCAA tournament money, BCS money, etc adds around $2M). Now the SEC may be able to renogiate a new TV deal but it is unknown what they could get (some of new money would be needed to pay exit penalty). Plus, number you are using is from when Big 12 has 12 teams. The money stayed the same when NU and CU left. So even without new TV deal, money went up. A&M will eventually make more money in SEC but it will be a few years before they realize it.

    2) Tickets sold to other teams – You almost make it sound like these tickets wouldn’t be sold if not bought by other schools. A&M can and often does sell these tickets to their own fans. TIckets not sold by other teams are returned to A&M and then sold to A&M fans. I would think some of these fans would also get hotel rooms in College Station. Also, if A&M has to withhold more tickets for other schools, that is less tickets than can sell to A&M fans. Also, SEC fans do travel but College Station is a longer trip than they are used to be making. I think there is some benefit from playing SEC schools instead of Big 12 schools but I don’t think it is as large as you make it out to be.

    3) WACO – If the Waco economy is really going to miss this game, all they need to do is return the Tech/Baylor game to campus locations. Currently the game is being played in Dallas. If the Waco economy needs a boost, Baylor shoud move the game back to Waco. I know this doesn’t impact the state overall (I know Dallas and Waco are in Texas) but the Perryman report seems Waco focused.

    4) Perryman report – Good job overall showing holes in Perryman report. I really wish the Perryman report would have shown how the numbers were calculated. The state of Texas lost money last year when the Big 12 lost NU and CU. The loss was from the loss of the conference title game (which was in Texas most years). I just don’t see a big loss to Texas is A&M leaves unless the Big 12 falls apart and Dan Beebe and his staff lose their jobs (several million dollar impact just in conference office salaries).

    1. Kold Beer,

      1) You’re right that she’s not taking the new distribution into account, but the SEC will immediately renegotiate their contracts which should bring about $30 million to each school. The $15 million figure is probably close but is short of what the Big XII promised A&M to keep them from moving to the SEC last summer.

      2) Her point had more to do with the latter part of your response – not so much that the tickets won’t get sold, but that they will be sold to fans from outside Texas resulting in an influx of money that would have otherwise stayed outside Texas. As a graduate of an SEC school myself, I can assure you that you are underestimating the willingness of SEC fans to travel…even to remote locations such as College Station, TX. Her numbers are actually conservative. Look at how many tickets Nebraska purchased and you will get the picture. By the way, that only includes the number of tickets allocated to Nebraska that were purchased, not all tickets purchased by Nebraska fans. What is the distance between College Station and Lincoln versus the average distance between A&M and the rest of the SEC West?

      3) You raise a good point here. If the home game is so important to the local economy of Waco, why did they move the game in the first place?

      4) Agree completely. If the Big XII collapses, there very well could be an overall loss to the economy but the extent to which is unknown. However, football is still going to be played at all of the Texas schools mentioned and depending on what conference they land in, out of state dollars could offset some of the losses.

  18. BU fans: how in the he11 are you guys not flaming pissed at tu? Good grief, you realize how much damage the LHN will do to you guys? Any hopes of y’all recruiting another female basketball phenom or stud track guy or any top football player, just went out the window. Do you really think Brittany would have chose BU if she knew going to tu would mean that all of her relatives, friends… Could see every game, featured stories, womens basketball preview shows…, that’s all gone for BU and you’re just taking it! WHY??? You can’t win in the big 12 now, it’s only going to get worse! Why is the BU admin not up in arms over how the LHN will affect all of BU sports programs?

    1. You obviously do not know anything about Brittany’s family. Her father had no intention of her ever going to UT and his reasons would not have changed had LHN been operational..

  19. Looks like a 4 page summary written on the fly by an economist with Baylor ties, paid for by UT grads or the school itself. Need more detail to verify the assumptions. Perhaps Perryman can focus his economic analysis on the Big 12′s decision not to expand back to 12 to retain the conference championship game that frequently took place in the state. What about the decision not to pursue a change in the conference’s BCS tie-in game from the Fiesta (all the way in Arizona) to the Cotton Bowl? What is the difference in revenue from a BCS game to a non-BCS game? Where is the analysis showing how much each school (including Baylor) would have made under a conference network platform instead of allowing schools to sign individual deals? There better be an analysis of lost revenue in the Big 12 adds BYU instead of the Univ. of Houston. Does this report even account in Case 1 for the increase in revenue and reputation for UH if they were the replacement? Then the state of Texas nets one more institution in a BCS conference.

  20. Dear Baylor Fans:

    You seem to be a very pathetic fan base. I have been to several games at Floyd Casey. In games involving Texas A&M, the vast majority of your tarp covered, fan filled stadium is the Texas A&M fan base.

    Here is a suggestion: Show up to your own damn games, be loud, be proud, be Baylor Bold. Because regardless of A&Ms affiliation with your school, I would not attend another game in your HS stadium for fear of getting snot bubbles all over me from your whining.

    Good lord, you do realize that had the governor/lt governor at the time of the SWC breakup had not been Baylor grads, your school would probably be in the Sunbelt or the Southland Conference right?

    Did you cry, and gnash teeth when TCU, UH , SMU and Rice were kicked to the curb? Was Perryman in $250K of credit card debt back then as well?

    Baylor you should be embarrassed at your leadership. They should stand up and be men. They should Baylor Bold! (Whatever the heck that is – Baylor Bold… stay Gold Baylor Bold!

    later

  21. One thing no one seems to have mentioned in all this is also the fact that Baylor is a private University, and thus not of concern to the legislature of Texas. Trying to hold a public institution responsible for the financial well-being of a private university is laughable. Baylor has every right to try and nail A&M on any contractual obligations as mutual members of the Big 12, if any exist. But beyond that, Texas A&M nor the state of Texas owe any financial considerations to a private entity.

  22. I have no skin in this game, but I can weigh in on Perryman’s credibility: He has none. Not in the economics world. Not in the legislative arena. ZERO in either. Perryman was figured out about 10 years ago when he took is “economist for hire” role to new levels and simply made up numbers. This is not the first report in which he did not disclose his model. Why? Because one simply cannot force the numbers to come out as he was hired to present them at time. I honestly feel sorry for him at this point as this seems to be the final nail in the coffin of his career. Additionally, I feel really sorry for Baylor’s fans and administrators. Holding up the Perryman report in the face of facts and common sense is clearly a cry for help. They really need to tone down the rhetoric or their reputation is going to nose dive even more.

  23. Perryman has been proven to be a fraud, plain and simple. Do a little research and you will find he is considered “for hire” by his peers and anyone who has dealt with him and any of his “findings” in the past. Aside from being sued for defaulting on $248,000 in CC debt, here are some samples of his “reputation”:

    http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/Doroshow01202011.pdf

    “or example, in 2008, Texans for Lawsuit Reform released a “study” that it paid for, supported by no
    documentation whatsoever, by Ray Perryman that “shows lawsuit reforms enacted in Texas beginning in 1995 have
    resulted in $112.5 billion in annual spending in Texas. 499,000 new, permanent jobs and a $2.6 billion increase in
    state tax revenue giving Texas a resounding competitive advantage in these challenging economic times.”

    According to the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Perryman may be skilled at self-promotion, but little else. Here’s what
    others said about him:

    “’He’s the most bought economist in Texas,’ says Austin City Council Member Brigid Shea, with whom he butted heads when he testified against proposed environmental regulations there. ‘He will produce any conclusion you want,’

    [and] ‘He’s got all these computer models he can never explain,’ says Austin lawyer Bill Bunch, …. ‘It’s just this black box. Hocus-pocus,’

    [and] ‘Go to an American Economics Association meeting and
    ask who Ray Perryman is. Nobody will have ever heard of him,’ says Thomas Saving, chairman of the economics department at Texas A&M.

    The president of the AEA, the major trade group for academic economics, has never heard of Dr. Perryman, a spokeswoman says. Laura Johannes, Economist Ray Perryman Is Hailed As a Genius — for Self Promotion, Wall Street Journal, May 10, 1995.”

    http://www.austinchronicle.com/issues/vol14/issue38/nakedcity.html

    “According to the WSJ article, although Perryman has produced many successful economic forecasts, his reputation has been tainted by a series of discredited reports, namely for Central Power & Light Co., a subsidiary of Central & South West Corp., and for Southwestern Bell. Both companies went before the Public Utility Commission (PUC) with rate hike cases supported by reports from Perryman’s company, the Perryman Group. In both cases, PUC staff economists declared the Perryman’s reports to be “incomprehensible” and “unreliable.”

    One of those staff economists, Dr. August Ankum, told WSJ that Perryman has little chance of future success before the commission. “Nobody in their right mind would bring him back, because they know he would be clobbered.” Ankum is now at MCI Corp.’s Chicago office.”

    There are more samples of his “reputation” if you would like…

  24. For me, what it seems to come down to is what is more important, the economy of Texas as a WHOLE, or the individual economies of Waco and Lubbock? Waco and Lubbock may suffer slightly (the equivalent of 50-75% of the town’s tourism related businesses taking one weekend off every other year) but the economies of College Station and of the state of Texas as a whole will both improve significantly. The difference in tourism dollars that Waco and Lubbock would see – which likely average out to about $1-1.5 million per year – absolutely pales in comparison to the huge new revenue being brought in by the change – tens of millions of dollars every year. The net benefit is way, WAY in the positive.

    Furthermore, think about all of the NEW jobs that might be created in College Station.. If A&M increases their away game allotment to 7000 like the rest of the SEC, and those allotments get significantly purchased, that will DOUBLE the number of out of town guests coming to CS on home game weekends (and also increase somewhat for other sports like basketball, baseball, etc). Hotels are already at capacity anytime there is any kind of event at A&M, even relatively small ones, so if the tourism numbers jump up that much, CS is going to have to start building more hotels PRONTO. That means lots of new money and lots of new jobs.

    Anyone with a brain can see that the Perryman report is a scam, so it’s nice to see a report that actually presents some REAL numbers and an unbiased look at what a positive move this would be for the state of Texas.

  25. Look at Dr Perryman’s staff page

    5 of 7 of them either have degrees from Baylor… and one is a Dean of a Baylor college

    unbiased, eh?

  26. I realize that this particular forum is designated for discussing the financial and business side of all things sports, but has anyone (particularly the Aggies) stopped to think about what should be the most important factor in this decision – the football?

    I am far from a fan of the Aggies, but I also do not share the same hatred for them that other Big XII schools seem to harbor (Baylor, Texas, etc.). As a person from somewhat middle ground, I have can’t help but think that the Aggies moving to the SEC would be a huge mistake for their game. Let’s be honest, the Aggies will be (as someone in a previous post so aptly put) the whipping boys of the SEC. Much as Baylor has long been for the Big XII, the Aggies don’t stand a chance of competing against the dominant forces in the SEC, and not just in football either (although that’s all that REALLY matters, right.)

    If the Aggies stay in the Big XII, they have a chance to become a dominant force once again (although it’s been a while…) and compete for things like conference championships, BCS bowl games, and maybe even national championships, but in the SEC – not a chance. I hate to break it to the Aggies, but it’s not just their main rivals who realize they don’t stand a chance of being serious contenders in the SEC, it’s the entire collegiate football nation. Let’s look at Arkansas, who after leaving the SWC for the SEC has YET to win a conference championship and only went to their FIRST BCS bowl since joining the SEC, last year. Not exactly a great track record when taking into account that if those same Arkansas teams throughout the years had been in “less competitive conferences” (cough, Big XII, cough), they might have achieved some of these things sooner. I can’t help but think that Aggie fans won’t be too keen on constantly losing and, in turn, might lose a chunk of their fan base. The other chunk of their fan base is also pretty bent on hating “TU”, so if heading to the SEC means losing lots of games AND not getting to “saw University’s Horns off”, if not a loss of fans and money – at the very least extremely disgruntled farmers and cult-like militants running amuck – that can’t be good. Now, I am not saying that Arkansas is a weak program or that they are hurting for money, but they aren’t really considered contenders because they ARE consistently weaker than their powerhouse SEC colleagues.

    As far as all the complaints that Texas and their Longhorn Network started this – I’m a little confused how that is valid. I understand that A&M got very upset about not having their own network, but I was completely aware of what the Longhorns getting their own television could (and most likely would) look like back when it was announced during the initial round of Big XII breakdown. The claims that Texas lied or didn’t completely divulge all of the information about their new network originally seems false. And again, I hate to break it to the Aggies, but Texas has a larger, wealthier fan base – and a more consistently successful program in the most recent past (with the exception of last year – what a joke). As the flagship university of Texas, A&M will always be “in the shadows”, with or without a LHN, and they will remain in the shadows even if they head to the SEC – the shadows will just be more numerous and even bigger.

    At this point, I think if the Aggie execs stop and think about what is really the best move for them (and not listen to all the crap from their own ridiculous fans, AND fans of competing schools), they will realize that sticking with the Big XII is the best move for now. They shouldn’t let their “pride” get in the way of making the right decision.

    Cue personal attacks and other senseless, emotionally fueled comments.

    1. This isn’t really about sports. It’s about whether The Powers That Be in College Station are ready to be their own University, and not Texas’ little brother.

    2. Really? “– at the very least extremely disgruntled farmers and cult-like militants running amuck ”

      I suppose “personal attacks and other senseless, emotionally fueled comments” only come from those with an opposing view. Typical liberal. LHN was never advertised as providing high school content. It was advertised as showing UT sports. They changed the rules very recently.

    3. “Let’s be honest, the Aggies will be (as someone in a previous post so aptly put) the whipping boys of the SEC.”

      That’s your opinion, I think it’s an incorrect one… but that’s my opinion. We will struggle, in the beginning, but I believe we will adjust and get better. If we’re wrong then so be it, but it’s our choice to make, we are willing to take on the best and find out if we can rise to the occasion. You don’t agree, fine, we get that. Luckily it seems the administration at our university has more confidence in our potential (and it would be very sad if they didn’t).

      “The claims that Texas lied or didn’t completely divulge all of the information about their new network originally seems false.” We’ve been told that at the same time Mr Dodds was telling our administration that the new network would only carry one football game a year, they were negotiating a contract that obliged them to attempt to get at minimum 2 games a year. If you can’t see why our admin no longer trusts their admin, I don’t know what to tell you.

    4. Womens basketball national champs. Three straight national titles in mens and womens track. TAMU ended well on the national scene in both mens basketball and baseball. A&M will not take a step back in all sports just because they move to the SEC.

  27. PS – I went to last year’s game in Waco… bought $0 of gas or food… did not stay the night… got free tickets from a baylor fan that didn’t go… but the win was priceless! thanks for the memories baylor!

  28. Thanks for the article. When I heard Perryman’s comments I to wondered where he came up with such BS. I had not see the stats for tickets available vs. tickets sold. Looks like we won’t be missing anything without the Big 12 schools. They are pathetic as far as supporting their teams. Baylor 981, they are only about 90 miles up the road. I’ll bet we do just as well probably better with the fans bases of LSU, AL , FL etc. that are located in Houston, Dallas and other cities around Texas.

  29. I usually just drive to Waco, steal some beers, mug down with some Baylor chicks, watch Baylor get beat down, take piss in the parking lot, then drive home.

  30. Too many typical-Aggie responses to even attempt to formulate a response to each. You have your agenda, that much is clear.

    Question – has the author of this piece been invited by Texas A&M and Bill Byrne to the home game against SMU this season? Has the author of this piece been in contact with various Aggies in formulating this piece? Amazingly, Aggies have been on various message boards speaking about this “unbiased” report that will be coming out soon…almost as if they knew it would be coming out. Yet, those same Aggies try to discredit Perryman for being biased and connected to Baylor.

    My point on the comparison of revenues was a simple point. If you were truly trying to be unbiased and accurate, you would have mentioned that of course those numbers will look tremendously different this season and have no bearing on the current Aggie decision. You used 17 million for your SEC number, and everyone knows the Aggies were promised over 20 million for the coming years in the Big 12. The way you characterized that argument wreaks of the Aggie-slant in your piece.

    Finally – it should be said – if Baylor is so irrelevant and nothing Baylor does or says matters, why are all of you wasting your time on this? If you are “in the right,” then just leave and get it over with. Why play this waiting game if everything Baylor is doing or has done is so wrong and unethical, and meaningless?

    1. Everyone has their agenda Steve.
      What we don’t appreciate is a hired gun like Perryman coming out with an economic doom report in 1 day with ZERO facts to back it up. Not one piece of evidence. Why was this done by Perryman? So the Hillco PR group would have something to spread around to certain newsgroups that just want a piece a paper to report quote. To a degree it worked. Several groups have WITHOUT challenging the report, just spouted it off as gospel.
      Luckily Krisit took a second look at it for the fraud that the Perryman report is.

      1. Exactly, right, Tommy. One additional point; having just read the original Perryman Report one can see that he highlighted statements indicating the proposed effects of A&M leaving. It was not a straight report presenting his opinion, but one created for impact, bent towards his personal view. He has no credibility.

    2. “Finally – it should be said – if Baylor is so irrelevant and nothing Baylor does or says matters, why are all of you wasting your time on this? If you are “in the right,” then just leave and get it over with. Why play this waiting game if everything Baylor is doing or has done is so wrong and unethical, and meaningless?”

      We’re trying to, but the poweres that be at Baylor are threatening legal action. We’re just waiting for word for our legal team and the SEC legal team to give us the green light. The only thing that’s holding this transition up at this point is Baylor’s legal saber ratteling.

  31. AL – in response to the whipping boys comment…

    You could have written the same statement about tu back in the early 90s when we contemplated going to the SEC. tu was our whipping boy. While in school we beat them 4 of 5 years, and most were not even close.

    It’s called cycles. Look at Bama’s record 10 years ago. Should they have just quit football under Shula? Look at OU under Blake… good lord they were our whipping boy before Stoops arrived. Should they have just quit football?

    The ignorance of some fans(clearly tu or baylor fans who are butt hurt we are leaving them for the best conference), is shocking. From 1985 to 1998, there was not a better program in the State of Texas to the Ags. Then we hired Fran and the rest was history.

    I have been around a lot of football, and I can tell you right now… the TEXAS AGGIES that will line up at Kyle Field this year, will not be anyone’s whipping boy. Games are won in the trenches, especially in the SEC and Sherman has been building for this since he got here.

    So good luck.

    Chip

  32. As an outside observer of this debate, I am quite frankly shocked at the lows of Baylor’s base. I’m sure A&M fans appreciate your concern about their possible lack of success in football in the SEC. I assume all of you are roughly 8-10 years of age based on your short term memory of college football history in the state of Texas. One thing that has been consistent–Baylor’s failure to compete in football for any length of time.

    Baylor fans, just stop. Really, stop. Move on and put all of this energy into getting some momentum for your own program.

    I wonder if Baylor could somehow manage to keep A&M in the Big 12, and suddenly Texas decided to go independent, would Baylor attempt to sue them to keep it from happening?

  33. Tommy – Perryman was not hired. You can not prove that he was hired, and he claims he was not. You can listen to a radio interview he gave explaining the report on 1660 ESPN Radio – if you really care.

    But you don’t. All the Aggies are the same, they hear one thing and repeat it over and over and over. Again I say, did this writer not also have contact with A&M? Is it not practically the same thing? One writer was looking out for A&M in her piece, and the other economist was looking out for Baylor in his? Is it not true that the author of this piece has been invited by Bill Byrne himself to an Aggie game this year?

    92agz – most of you all were ready to fire Sherman half-way through the season last year. He turned it around and credit to him – but to act like the Aggies have had everything figured out since the moment Sherman got here is wrong.

  34. Kristi, I agree that the Pearlman report is garbage until he is willing to publish the methodology, but really is disingenuous to use last year’s conference distributions, given that A&M is guaranteed a substantial raise (they were promised $20 million but it’s not clear if they will get quite that much). Yes the SEC will rework their contract, but who knows what that means. They might get a substantial raise, but that also might just get a deal that keeps the current per team payouts the same.

    (And that’s to say nothing of the $30 million in exit penalties the school would have to pay despite still the fact that the athletic department is still $10+ million in debt)

    Again, I agree that a move to the SEC would not cost the state of Texas $200 million, but there is likely at a least 50% chance that A&M would do no better than simply breaking even by changing conferences.

    1. Frug – It’s not disingenuous at all for Kristi to use the latest actual set of real numbers, which were last years distributions. She made her point and used ACTUAL numbers to back them up.

      You’re right in that there is no way to know what the renegotiated SEC contract will provide to each team, but you also have no way of knowing what the BIg 12 distribution will be either. A promise of 20 million “Beebe bucks” doesn’t mean squat. And to reach that number, which is the major reason that A&M even stayed last year, he would have to take money from other schools like Baylor. My 30 second economic impact study I just did says that that will cost Baylor a couple of million of dollars. Please send me your contact info so I can fax you my documentation(lunch napkin) to back up my study.

      And there is really nothing to say about a “$30 million exit fee” as the Big 12 set a ridiculous precedent last year by letting NU and CU out for $10mil and $7mil respectively last year. There’s no way they can charge A&M the full amount when they didn’t do that last year. Not to mention, if the Big 12 folds, then there is no conference to pay penalties to anyway.

      1. Three things:

        1. Last year the schools like Baylor volunteered to forgo their portion of Colorado’s and Nebraska’s exit penalties if necessary to get Oklahoma, Texas and TAMU $20 million (though OU and UT have since said that they will not hold the other schools to that promise if the conference comes up short).

        2. The reason I thought it was disingenous to use last year’s payouts is because even if Beebe comes up short of his $20 million promise (and I agree there is a very good chance that happens) the amount A&M will get is still going to be closer to $20 million than last year’s payout. Even if TAMU only gets $15 million, they would need the renegotiated SEC deal to payout $30 million a year in order to double their conference earnings, which is what Kristi implied would happen by moving to the SEC.

        3. Just because the Big XII cut deals with Nebraska and Colorado last year does not mean they have to make them TAMU. Last year was a unique set of circumstances that caused the conference to negotiate with CU and NU. Firstly, the league felt that it was more important to move on and try and rebuild the conference’s image (that’s the same reason they let Colorado go a year earlier than it was set to), which meant avoid a messy court fight. Second, the had cut deals with ESPN and Fox that enabled them to get raises despite the loss of two teams and the CCG. It is extremely unlikely those two will give the same deal again, especially if ESPN is forced to rework its contract with the SEC.

        You are right that a collapse of the conference would mitigate the need to pay any exit penalties, but it is a $30 million risk. I’m not saying it isn’t worth taking, but is something to consider.

    2. P.S.

      A. That should read Perryman in my previous post

      B. I need to reiterate exactly how worthless Perryman’s report is. It is entirely unsourced, has no methodological explanation, no data outside of his “conclusions”, no mention of his potential conflict of interest (he is Baylor grad and his office is located in Waco), and it is poorly written to boot. I am not in the least bit exaggerating when I say that if I had submitted this as a term paper in an Econ 101 class, I would have failed the course. It is completely worthless from an academic standpoint and Perryman has permanently damaged his credibility by writing it. I honestly can not imagine how anyone who has read the report would actually take it seriously.

  35. A Gilly you need to work on you reading comp a little bit there buddy, Here is the exact quote cut and pasted from my opening thread.

    “A very good analysis. Let me add something else. A&M is located less then a 100 miles from Waco”

    Al, give me a break, if you are as non biased as you claim to be then you would truly be researching the reasons why A&M is upset. THE NCAA HAS BASICALLY SAID WHAT UT IS TRYING TO DO WITH THE LHN IS AGAINST THE RULES

    It was UT that started to go to the PAC 10 until the PAC ten told them they could not have their own network under the terms that they wanted it to be. Then the Ags said if you got Pac, we go SEC. With any Aggie gov in power we have the political clout to hold serve.

    After UT declared their network the ESPN LHN program director, Brown, a UT grad and booster, stated that the LHN was going to air HS games especially those that featured UT commits. It was A&M that went nuts on this to the point that Dodds the Commissioner of the Big XII oh excuse me I mean AD of UT, said “X$%^ Bill Byrne”. UT has always been the one to try to do anything they can in anyway to exalt their status and position. They could care less about the conference and they have proven that over and over again.

    As far as competing in the SEC, I’ll take my chances. I am Texan, a real Texan by nature does not run away from competing against the best and the SEC is simply the best football conference out there. I am sure we will be fine. Will we dominate? doubt it but we’ll have our times. As far as playing UT, it will not be the Ags who back away, wait and see. Furthermore since the scholarship limit is in place that Ags have a winning record against UT. And have won 3 of the last 5. We have placed higher in the directors cup and have won more cumulative national championship is all sports in the last two years then the entire Conference combined. I am not worried about competing IF THE FIELD IS LEVEL.

    That’s deal UT will never play on even field, they will either try to re write the rules or push the limits. That is who they are, they cannot be trusted, so we move on. I would rather pay $70 or more dollars to watch us play a Georgia team that is a threat then an ISU or Baylor team that is only a humiliation if we lose and nothing if we win. We need to play with the big boys BECAUSE WE ARE ONE OF THE BIG BOYS>

    1. It’s laughable that you accuse Texas of being so “untrustworthy” and of making the field uneven, as if the SEC won’t be a million times worse. My argument is not that A&M is not better than Texas or Baylor, it’s that they can actually compete against these schools and, if you Aggies could put aside your penis envy for Texas for one minute, you would see that.

  36. Steve, the difference is that Perryman is a BAYLOR GRAD, while Ms. Dosh is not even a grad of a Big12 school, much less of Texas A&M.

    Most of us were NOT ready to fire Sherman. A very vocal minority was, but every school has those folks.

    Al, as for being the “whipping boy” comments, it should be noted that Texas A&M finished #8 in the Learfield Director’s Cup, which covers all sports. This was the highest position for a Big12 team, and second only to Florida in the SEC pecking order. The football program is on the rise (acknowledged by just about everyone) and has a couple of top 10 recruiting classes coming in, the basketball programs are already amongst the nations best, as is the baseball team. Not to mention national championships in track and golf.

    I venture to guess that a majority of Aggies are not that worried about being competitive in the SEC, especially by 2012.

  37. Steve:

    Let’s set aside who was paid and who has an agenda. Clearly it can’t be definitively proven to your liking and won’t be settled one way or the other.

    What can be definitively proven is which analysis has citations for data and complete explanations of methodology. That is the analysis on this website and not the analysis from the Perryman report.

    Ms. Dosh’s report has been praised by several media members today, who have no “dog in the fight”.

  38. Steve – you keep sucking the hind teet of tu, and we will make our own way, as we always do! Texas Aggies are not afraid of a challenge, and I for one am amazed at the cowardice of the other Big12 schools in standing up to tu.

    You guys keep it up, good luck with the Big whatever it will be, and we will see you later.

    Texas Aggies walk out the door and into the SEC…

  39. Great report Kristi—thanks for giving us some actual numbers and a logical interpretation of their significance. As for Perryman’s report—I know they say don’t believe everything you read, but how can people justify believing something that hasn’t even been written? People just get a degree and can throw numbers around with nothing to support them?

    If that report was for an econ class in Blinn community college, or even Baylor, it would get an F because there are no facts to support the thesis, which IMO is kind of an important detail.

    I am just stoked that soon the Bevo 10 (or Dodds Dozen?) will be a thing of the past and I’ll never have a compelling reason to go to Waco again.

  40. So Al, please explain to me how wanting to go to the SEC is penis envy of UT? A university and culture that has long time back abandoned it’s Texas culutral roots! I am not envious of UT in any way, I could of gone to either school! I choose A&M for a lot reasons. There is really nothing that UT offered to me to be jealous of in any way, acadmics, socially or athletically, When I was at A&M we dominated UT. As I said we have the winning record since scholarship limits. So please tell me how Aggies wanting to go to the SEC is penis envy of UT!?

    Your an idiot Al if you think the SEC as whole is less trustworthy a business partner then UT. You see the SEC is a one member one vote equal confernce, there are no preferred partners. Yes it is a highly competitive conference but at least the playing field is level. The SEC has real commisioner not a sock puppet of anyone institute. No one school can leverage a an unfair advantage over another. As far as cheating goes, Well, there if you think the Big XII and UT are clean there I got some great investment plans from Nigeria for you to consider!

    There is no penis envy we just want equality. That means simple we are big boy and we want to hang around big boys and that big boys are all playing under the same rules and criteria. Pretty simple really.

  41. One other thing please tell me why Cleave Bryant was fired? Why was that all hushed up and swept under the rug?

  42. Sounds like their economist was using Obama math. I wonder what he thinks of the his stimulus plan.

    As an LSU fan I welcome aTm and any other school with the guts to compete.

  43. To clear this all up for everyone, I took a few minutes last night while I was watching Big Brother and created my own report looking at the most probable outcome if Texas A&M joins the SEC.

    My findings indicated an eleventy billion dollar impact on the great State of Texas . I’m releasing this to all major media outlets in central Texas tonight and it should be available for review by all of you in the morning.

    Your welcome!

  44. Kristi,

    Thanks for the post; I’m glad someone is looking into the specious figures in Perryman’s report. I do think your conjecture about Louisville leaving for the Longhorn conference is way off base though. CBS reports the Big East walked away from a $1.4 billion offer over ten years for the conference’s television rights. Based on the conference’s current distribution scheme between football and basketball only members, that would mean it already turned down an offer of $12mm per school before open bidding has even taken place. Assuming Louisville was offered a distribution similar to what you report A&M received (approx. $9mm), then Louisville would be nuts to even consider an offer. I think it is far more likely you see Big 12 schools defect to the Big East than vice versa (Missouri, KU and KSU). In sum, BYU and Houston – yes; Louisville – no way.

  45. Kristi,
    Love the article. Big question I have is why would the Oklahoma schools stay behind? Why does it seem that OU is hitching their wagon to Texas, when it seems that during the Expansion Armageddon of 2010, ESPN brokered a deal with Texas to keep the conference together and the payoff for UT was the Longhorn network. I have to believe that the commish (Beebe) knew about this and said nothing to the other member schools in the Big12. It shows he cannot be trusted and wont look out for the interest of the member institutions.

    Why not make the move to the PAC12 since they both have to move as a package. PAC12 is forming their network and will have regional networks using cable providers such as COX which is the primary carrier in Oklahoma. In addition, OU would be able to continue to recruit Texas and add more recruiting in So Cal as well. On top of this, the OU president Mr Boren is not fond of the SEC and their “perceived” lack of academic structure. The PAC12 has, I believe 8 AAU member institutions (Zona, Colo, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, UW). I ask this knowing that the schools could make more monies by joining the PAC12.

    Thoughts?

  46. Does anyone know how Texas A & M’s move to the SEC, if it happens, would effect the non conference game with Arkansas and the contract they have with Jerry Jones?

    1. Judd, as I posted below, shouldn’t change a thing. Arkansas and A&M both make more money playing at JerryWorld every year (about $5 million per team per year) than either school would make playing home games against each other. And there’s no issue in the SEC with playing at a neutral site; Florida and Georgia have done so forever in Jacksonville, and Auburn and Alabama did for many years in Birmingham. I’ve also learned that there are five consecutive 4-year roll-over options on the original 10-year contract, so that game could conceivably continue for 30 years at JW.

  47. Interesting analysis, Kristi. Should point out, though, that Arkansas and Texas A&M are in year three of a 10-year contract to play every year in JerryWorld, a deal that should continue after A&M joins the SEC, and that contract may well be extended. So it may be quite a while before Arkansas plays at Kyle Field.

  48. Good article, but I think the point you are missing is currently even when a&m plays a road game most of those are still played in the state of Texas. The economic impact on the local community doesn’t really matter that the dollars are coming from in-state or out of state. What matters is the hotels and resturants are are full and the community experiences a boom.

    As the only Texas member of the SEC, a&m will now play all of their conference away games out of state. Those are the games that represent lost revenue for the state (roughly 2 to 3 games per year in lost revenue). All the other games are a wash.

  49. Sorry to comment so late, but just found this excellent website. I don’t think that Kristi Dosh is making a final conclusion. Her articles seem to be intended to provoke a discussion. Her fundamental point seems to be that the economist’s assertions should be distrusted until backed up by some data and method. This is no more than I would expect from a bright energetic young lawyer who is willing to do some digging. She must have learned something about cross examination of experts at U Florida Law School.

    I think there is probably too much emphasis on the the Longhorn Network. Maybe the details of that were the last straw for Texas A&M. However, I’ve read that there was supposedly a previous offer to develop a Lone Star Network that would have served both Texas and Texas A&M, but that Texas A&M declined to participate in.

    Seems to me that the real issue was that in 2010 when Larry Scott proposed a Pac 16, and Texas and Oklahoma were actually considering this, Texas A&M got the message that two of the most famous members of the Big 12 were not committed to the Big 12. There were rumors in 2010 of Texas A&M going to the SEC instead of the Pac 12. Don’t know if Texas A&M was actually working hard on that option before that, but I have to guess that A&M has spent a lot of time over the last year in negotiations with the SEC.

    I’ve been reading a lot of fan comments on various college sports forums, and I can’t believe the level of animousity between the fans of Texas universities. This greatly exceeds what I see between fans of other universities. I realize that TCU is overjoyed at finally being admitted to the Big 12 club, and I suppose that SMU and Houston would also be overjoyed. However, after reading so much hate and discourteous venom on the internet, I wonder if joining the Big 12 is such a good thing. At least the fans in the SEC cheer for other SEC teams, and even chant the name of their conference with pride at games. I can’t imagine the fans in the Big 12 chanting the name of their conference at a game.

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  52. I think we are doing quite well right now in the SEC. A 10 win season, an Outland Trophy winner, a Davey O’Brian winner, a Coach of the Year and last but not least, a potential Heisman Trophy winner. And as far as I know, the Texas economy has not collapsed from any of this.

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